For the past month, there was an intensifying talk between Washington and Tehran. Tehran agreed to relocate four imprisoned dual nationals U.S.-Iranians from jail to home arrest, with the prospect of being allowed to leave Iran.
Based on the deal, Iran is about to gain access to $6 billion of Iranian funds frozen in South Korea and counter release of some Iranians in the U.S. Some experts believe that the agreement could lead to further diplomatic cooperation, including the current administration’s longstanding goal of containing Iran’s nuclear program. However, moves like this involving prisoner exchanges were already visible during previous administrations.
In 2018 President Donald J. Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. As The New York Times indicate, there is “[h]opes that formal nuclear talks organized by the European Union could restart later this year”. However, the potential 2024 election raises the question of whether Joe Biden will be willing to take risks of opening talks in the eye of a potential campaign against Donald J. Trump.
In addition, as highlighted by the Financial Times the U.S. also “[w]ants Iran to stop supplying drones to Russia, which Moscow is using in the war in Ukraine, as well as spare parts for the unmanned aircraft”. Tehran officially denies the use of its drones in Ukraine. However, informally Iran had repeatedly asked Moscow to stop deploying them in the conflict. Washington constantly pushes for “more concrete steps”.
All indicate that Iran could become one of the themes of the 2024 election campaign. The Biden administration is conditioning further diplomatic progress based on its next presidential term. In contrast, Trump’s retrieval to office will indicate the return of the “maximum pressure” policy that characterise his administration.
Author:
Szymon Polewka is a student of international relations at the Jagiellonian University in Kraków, specializing in the history of international relations, the Eurasian region, DACHL countries, intercultural relations, and the energy sector. He is currently on a scholarship at the University of Bremen. He has gained experience organizing the 2020 Economic Forum in Karpacz and numerous youth and student associations, such as AIESEC or Koło Naukowe Wyzwań Zielonego Ładu.
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