Collaborative post
Is hardwork or playing the lottery more likely to reap rewards?
English politician and mining magnate Cecil Rhodes, who served as the Prime Minister of the Cape Colony from 1890 to 1896, is reported to have said “To be born British is to win first prize in the lottery of life”. The sickly son of a clergy family, Cecil Rhodes was sent to South Africa for his health. Over the next two decades, with funding from Rothschild & Co, he gained a near-complete monopoly of the world diamond market. So, was this luck, or hard work, that netted him his rewards? Well, like most things in life, that’s a complicated question, and we should not be hasty in coming to a conclusion either way.
What are the odds?
Let’s start off by looking at the UK’s National Lottery, which is regulated by the UK government’s Gambling Commission and is one of the world’s largest lotteries since launching in 1994. As of February 1, 2024, this is now licensed to Alwyn under the Commission’s Fourth National Lottery Licence.
The bad news is that the odds of winning the National Lottery jackpot are about 14 million to 1. By comparison, the odds of being hit by debris from a plane are 10 million to 1, being attacked by a shark are 5 million to one, and becoming a movie star are 1.5 million to one.
Further, back in 2017, someone calculated that you would need to buy one lottery ticket
every minute for the next 86 years to have ONE of those tickets win the UK lottery jackpot.
So, does that mean you should only rely on hard work and reap your rewards the old-fashioned way with grit, determination, and elbow grease?
Is hard work enough?
There are two factors to consider here. Firstly, many jobs in today’s market are barely enough to survive on – let alone reap any significant rewards compared to any significant lottery win. The gig economy promises flexibility of hours, but the downside is the lack of assurance of work during those hours, and the low rates actually paid to gig workers.
Some people don’t even have the potential to reap these rewards however hard they work, whether due to age or personal circumstances. Someone with a severe long-term illness, a caregiver to a disabled child, or an elderly person surviving on a state pension have no reasonable chance to reap any rewards from hard work. All their efforts are put into getting through each day as it comes with the barest minimum of resources.
Secondly, there is also an element of luck in many people’s “hard work” success, whether it’s a family legacy, a decent education, good (or ill) health, or the right contacts at the right time. If Cecil Rhodes hadn’t been sent to South Africa, he wouldn’t have been able to dominate the lucrative diamond market and eventually set up the De Beers diamond company. To quote Louis Pasteur, “Chance favours the prepared mind”, but chance is a fickle companion in life and only some of those who are prepared are visited by her. At least with a lottery, everyone who buys a ticket has an equal chance of reaping those rewards.
And you don’t need to limit yourself to the UK National Lottery. There are EU wide lotteries, U.S. lotteries, and other country based lotteries such as the Polish Lottery. The Polish mini lottery, for instance, has a much higher likelihood of a jackpot payout – although the top prize is also significantly lower.
Is it just about the rewards?
The question posed at the beginning also ignores a key question in this debate – why do people do the lottery? Are the rewards purely monetary?
Gambling of one kind of another is endemic across all societies, although more prevalent in some than in others. Sometimes, playing the lottery is more about the possibility of winning, it’s the anticipation of being the one who wins this week’s jackpot and imagining what you could with those winnings. Hope springs in the eternal breast, and when life is hard and a daily struggle, even the transient thought of being free of worry is enough to drive us to buy a ticket or play the odds.
There is also a dopamine spike that accompanies the possibility of winning, and that is perfectly normal. Look at the numbers of people who play all sorts of online games such as the slot machines available via Casino.org – and at least the odds there are a whole lot more customer friendly. That thrill pf playing can be its own reward, a spark of excitement in an otherwise dull day.
Then there is the sense of community we get from taking part in a national lottery. The chances are that you know others who play the lottery – maybe an older relative who religiously buys a lottery ticket or scratchcard every week. It’s a bonding experience to talk about your chances, and what you might do with those winnings. And you know there are millions of people who watch the draw – especially when the jackpot is particularly large.
On top of that, many national lotteries also provide a community benefit. According to the Gambling Commission, players of the National Lottery have raised more than £48 billion for more than 685,000 good causes across the UK. Also, under the Fourth Licence’s new “Incentive Mechanism” all National Lottery products will make “Returns to Good Causes” at the same level and Allwyn will only see its profits rise if “Returns to Good Causes” also go up.
So, what’s the conclusion?
As I said at the beginning, the answer to this conundrum is complicated.
- All other things being equal, you are more likely to reap the rewards with hardwork.
- But that depends on having access to the opportunities where those rewards are comparable to a lottery win, and not everyone has access to those chances.
- Lottery players also get a reward from just playing the game, whether the thrill of possibly winning, the community aspect of sharing the excitement with other players, and of contributing to worthy causes.
As long as you don’t go crazy and spend your life savings on lottery tickets, I would suggest you take advantage of both paths. Work hard but also enjoy yourself with a little flutter now and then. And if you do strike it lucky, all I ask is that you raise a toast to me. And may the odds be ever in your favour.
