The return of Netanyahu – the possible comeback of regional tensions and the resurrection of extremist politics

Benjamin Netanyahu, the former and current prime minister of Israel secured his sixth term as primer minister after the Knesset  (Israeli Parliament)  elections on the 1st of November 2022. The Likud party leader’s bloc was set to win a comfortable majority of 65 out of the required 60 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. As the current political arrangements form, the envisaged coalition is expected to be a much more unified right-wing coalition composed of a smaller number of parties easier to hold together. Conclusively, this coalition is expected to enact a dissonant crackdown on Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.

For the U.S. these developments certainly come at a measured time,e just a few days before the midterm elections. Amidst the U.S.  midterm elections scheduled for November 8, 2022, raising questions on U.S. foreign policy and the future of the U.S.-Israeli relationship could bring back on the spotlight the long-standing history between Netanyahu and President Joe Biden.

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During the days prior to the elections, Palestinian cities in the occupied West Bank were under siege on repeated occasions, fuelling the fear of its citizens and the rising consequences of the return of a less deferential political government. According to experienced analysts, “the prospects for an independent and viable Palestinian state seems less likely than ever.”^[1] In this context, the rising concern that dominates the political discourse among US officials is how best to work with Israel when the government proposes a political agenda that might result in extremism and be unfavourable to U.S. interests in the region. For instance, Itamar Ben-Gvir, one of the right-wing party leathers of the Religious Zionist Party (RZP)  “who was convicted in 2007 of supporting a terror organization and inciting racism”^[2] is proposing his name for the Ministry of Internal Security. Accordingly, said position would allow him to be in direct control of the Israeli police and policies around Jerusalem's holy sites. Similarly, Bezalel Smotrich (RZP) has not uncovered his repeated hostility toward Israeli Arabs, setting into question the uniformity of Israeli democracy. Indeed, the inclusion of Smotrich and Ben Gvir within Netanyahu's new cabinet would affect not only affect U.S.-Israel relations but also it is widely expected to affect also relations with the Emirates.

Similarly, in Brazil, former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva enters back to lead Brazil after defeating Jair Bolsonaro during the presidential elections last week. Both soon-to-be Brazilian President “Lula” da Silva and Benjamin Netanyahu have managed to reconquer the strings of power in their respective countries. In Latinamerica, far-left political arrangements are renowned for being progressist with a tendency to lean towards extremist politics of anti-imperialism and social liberalism. However, such tendencies differ from their European counterpart categories and labels as denominating them right or left do not disregard the numerous elements of convergence. For instance, maintaining an extremist posture and disregarding the opposition, endangering the balance of power and subjugating domestic minorities.

In addition to these considerations, important to highlight is that the rise of extremist parties presupposes a major challenge to democracy and the balance of power. Reality does not lies and the fact that both prospective leaders have faced trials for corruption, bribery, fraud and breach of trust. Indeed the future relationship between the U.S. and Israel will be determined in the following days or weeks as the midterm elections are over. Certainly, it is expected that former president Donald Trump to come back to the scene after standing in the dark for the past months.

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In Israel, the political comeback of Netanyahu might fundamentally entail an alteration of the existing constitutional order that serves as the foundation for Israeli democracy. By challenging the judiciary, repeatedly crushing fundamental rights in the neighbouring regions of the West Bank and pursuing an extremely conservative agenda, Israel might encounter forced political stability internally with a hint of major strife externally.

In this context, the position of Israel vis-a-vis Ukraine is not expected to change. On repeated occasions, Israel has denounced Russian aggression to Ukraine however, it has maintained a policy of non-military intervention in the war, as expressed by Defence Minister Benny Gantz saying Israel was firm on not supplying Kyiv with weapons. Even after the employment of Iranian-based missiles by Russian forces, Israel directs its political will “citing a desire for continued cooperation with Moscow over war-ravaged neighbour Syria and to ensure the wellbeing of Russia's Jews.”^[3] Certainly, this posture is viewed with opposing eyes by Israel's partners. 

Notwithstanding, Israel is likely to become a key actor in the upcoming months as its role increases in energy-related initiatives after signing an agreement with Lebanon, earlier this month, over their maritime border. If successful, “Israel’s ability to produce natural gas from the Karish field provides some much-needed positive news for energy markets.”^[4] Consequently, the EastMed gas pipeline scheduled between Israel and Greece passing through Cyprus, signed back in January 2022, is expected to reinvigorate American U.S.

Katja-Elisabeth Herrmann

Katja-Elisabeth works as a research fellow at the Warsaw Institute. She has a background in Transatlantic Affairs from the College of Europe (Warsaw, Poland) and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Additionally, Katja-Elisabeth holds a BA in International Relations and International Organizations which she combined with a degree in International and European Law from the University of Groningen. During her undergraduate studies, her main focus explored the nexus between technology and law in the European Union.

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